ODDS LISTED ARE WITH SPORTS INTERACTION
Cobe's picks record is 13-4
DERRICK LEWIS VS CHRIS DAUKAUS
Derrick Lewis is arguably the hardest hitter in the UFC Heavyweight division. He is coming off a loss to Cyril Gane. Those of you that have fallowed my MMA advice know how impressed I am with Cyril Gane, and predicted him to beat Lewis. So is this the beginning of the end for Derrick Lewis? I wouldn't say so. Even if he loses this fight to Daukaus I wouldn't close the book on him. With his knockout power he has the capability to defeat anyone at any moment.
Chris Daukaus has been on a tear since signing with the UFC. Although he doesn't hit quite as hard as Lewis. He has the power to KO his opponents. He is 4-0 in the UFC with all of his wins coming by KO or TKO. His power won't be the deciding factor in this one though. Daukaus is actually quite Light and nimble for a Heavyweight. The same cannot be said for Derrick Lewis. If Daukaus can utilize the same game script Cyril Gane used he can emerge the victor.
This is an incredibly difficult fight to predict. I am personally a fan of both fighters. I am going with Chris Daukaus to get the finish. Only because I believe Cyril Gane exposed a major weakness in Lewis' game. A weakness that Daukaus has the skill to exploit.
-Chris Daukaus by DQ, KO, or TKO
-Fight to go the Distance > NO: $1.2 / -501
STEPHEN THOMPSON VS BELAL MUHAMMAD
Stephen Thompson is one of the most elusive and difficult fighters to face in the Welterweight division. That's why he has been near the top for so long. His ability to control range, and Takedown defense keeps his fights where he wants them. He is coming off a loss to Gilbert Burns who is one of the absolute beasts of the division. His only losses have come against tough top competitors.
Belal Muhammad is on a 5 fight win streak and has an opportunity to break into the Top 10 of the UFC Welterweight rankings with a win over Wonderboy. He is a very gritty fighter who loves to pressure his opponent, and can grind out decision victories with key Takedowns. He has great Takedown Defense, and throws great combinations.
Unfortunately for Belal Muhammad everything he does great is almost useless against Stephen Thompson. Wonderboy isn't going to take you down unless you are already extremely hurt. Rarely does an opponent land combinations against him. The way to beat Wonderboy is to pressure him up against the cage, and punish him on the inside. If you can hurt him enough to actually take him down that's even better. I don't believe Belal will be able to close distance with him effectively enough. I expect Stephen Thompson to pick him off with stiff jabs and side kicks, and subsequently get the decision.
-Stephen Thompson to Win: $1.4 / -250
AMANDA LEMOS VS ANGELA HILL
Amanda LEMOS has been wrecking opponents with her powerful Kicks and precise timing with her Takedowns. She has stopped 3 of her last 4 opponents. That being said Angela Hill will be her first truly recognizable opponent for most MMA fans.
Angela Hill has an in your face stalking Muay Thai style. She has a tonne of experience, and is tough as nails. She is usually the more active fighter in the majority of her fights. Unfortunately she doesn't hit with much power so her path to victory is generally by decision.
This should be an entertaining fight with some amazing striking. Both fighters will land some great shots. I just believe that Lemos will land the more damaging ones. I also see her takedown ability to be the deciding factor if it goes the distance. My prediction is that's the most likely outcome. Amanda Lemos by Decision.
-2.5 Rounds > OVER: $1.5 / -200
RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO VS RICKY SIMON
Raphael Assuncao is a true Mixed Martial Artist. He can fight anywhere in the Octagon skillfully. I would say his boxing is his best skill but he can hurt opponents from the outside with hard kicks. He has beaten some of the best at Bantamweight but is on the first losing streak of his career. 3 straight losses to Moraes, Sandhagen, and Garbrandt.
Ricky Simon does his best work on the mat. He aggressively looks for Takedowns, and will eat a few strikes to get them. On the mat he is a powerful wrestler, who punishes opponents into making mistakes. So that he can punish them with Ground and Pound, or get a Submission. Standing he isn't that great of a Striker but uses his jab to open up opponents for the Takedown.
Another very difficult fight to call. For that reason I am going with the hot hand. Ricky Simon is on a 3 fight win streak, and Raphael Assuncao is on a 3 fight losing streak. I think Ricky's wrestling will be the difference, and he grinds out the victoy. Ricky Simon by Decision.
-2.5 Rounds > OVER: $1.54 / -185
DIEGO FERREIRA VS MATEUSZ GAMROT
Diego Ferreira is your prototypical Brazilian mixed martial artist. On the feet he has some great striking both at range and in close. On the Ground he is just as dangerous off his back as he is in top position. Always looking for the Submission.
Mateusz Gamrot is a great wrestler who I can only assume has become a better wrestler since joining American Top Team in Florida. He also possesses a variety of submissions in his arsenal. On the feet he has heavy hands but his technique is rudimentary.
The matchmakers have done there best to test us analysts the final card of the season. Will Gamrot take Ferreira down? Yes he will. Will Ferreira attack from the bottom by going for Submissions? Yes he will. Will either Ferreira or Gamrot find a way to get the finish? That's the question. Does Gamrot's wrestling negate Ferreira's BJJ? This one is just brutal to predict. I am going with the chance that one of these fighters will make a mistake. So because of that I am inclined to lean towards the more experienced of the two fighters. Diego Ferreira by Submission.
-Fight to go the Distance > NO: $2 / +100
CUB SWANSON VS DARREN ELKINS
Cub Swanson has been fighting as a professional mixed martial artist for a long time. He has fought against some of the best fighters. Standing is when Swanson is at his best. He has some high level boxing both at distance and in close. On the Ground he isn't as effective, and somewhat vulnerable to Submissions. Now I believe that's something he has worked on the last few years, so I don't see it as a huge liability.
Darren Elkins is pretty much the opposite of Cub Swanson. About the only thing they share in common is that they are both veterans of the octagon. Elkins has very little Striking prowess. He is as tough as they come though, and will eat shots in order to get in for a Takedown. Once a fight gets to the Ground though he is in his element. He is a truly high level wrestler that knows how to smother his opponents, and punish them with vicious Ground and Pound. His toughest opponents have either 1 punch knockout power or an excellent Submission game.
So once more we have a difficult fight to predict. What makes this even more difficult is that there really isn't anything riding on this fight for either fighter except the Win bonus. They are both in their late thirties, and the classic Striker vs Wrestler matchup is unlikely to earn a performance bonus. Neither is particularly adept at Submissions, so I see this fight going the distance. Now usually I would side with the wrestler in a Striker vs Wrestler match. I have already picked against a Wrestler on this card so it seems wrong to go against the rule and do it again. I'll take Darren Elkins by Decision.
-Fight to go the Distance > YES: $1.71 / -141
-GERALD MEERSCHAERT to WIN: $1.42 / -240
-JORDAN LEAVITT to WIN: $1.77 / -130
-RAONI BARCELOS to WIN: $1.26 / -385