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SB LVI Picks with NWB (Part 1)

This is the first part of two posts for Super Bowl 56 betting markets, with help from our partner, Sports Interaction. As always, if you choose to gamble, make sure that you gamble responsibly.


Before we get into the big game, let's recap how I did with my Conference Title offerings:

  • Bengals Team Total over 23.5 (@ Kansas City Chiefs) @ $1.85 (-118) Won

  • Tyler Boyd under 3.5 receptions (@ Kansas City) @ $2.35 (+135) Loss

  • C.J. Uzomah to score a touchdown anytime (v KC) @ $3.5 (+250) Loss

  • Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions (v Buffalo) @ $2.05 (+105) Won

  • Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 1st Half Point Spread (v Kansas City) @ $1.95 (-105) Loss

  • Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 touchdown passes (v Cincinnati) @ $2.20 (+120) Loss

  • Patrick Mahomes for most passing yards on Conference Championship Round @ $2.50 (+150) Loss

  • Elijah Mitchell over 11.5 receiving yards (v LA) @ $1.91 (-110) Won

  • Tyler Higbee over 4.5 receptions (v San Francisco 49ers) @ $2.25 (+125) Loss

  • Elijah Mitchell to have the most rushing yards on Conference Championship Round @ $3.10 (+210) Loss

PSP with NWB NFL Record - Conference Championships: 4-7 (-2.99 units); Overall: 58-62 (-12.96 units).


It was entertaining to watch, especially as a neutral. Sadly, injuries to Uzomah and Higbee knocked out their props, but hopefully they can play, now we are at the Big Dance. Odds are from our friends at Sports Interaction. Sign up for an account and get 100% of your deposit in free bets. Follow the link/banner below!

 
Cincinnati Bengals Team Total over 22.5 (v Los Angeles Rams) @ $1.85 (-118)

We've been riding some form of this prop throughout the season so let's finish strong! The Bengals have a great offense and they will need to put points on the board often to stay afloat. Whether it is through the boot of Evan McPherson or their explosive passing attack, the Bengals will put sufficient points on the board to cover this line. Chase, Mixon, Higgins and Uzomah will all be singing from the same song sheet as Joe Burrow.


LAR 1st Half Result / LAR 2nd Half Result Double @ $2.05 (+105)

While the Bengals may put up some points, this may not be enough to get the result on the day. Especially if the Rams are leading at the main break. As we know by now, Sean McVay is pretty good at finishing the job as head coach, when his teams lead at half time (only one loss ever), so let's go back to a trend that has served us well during the season.

Most Third Down conversions - Cincinnati @ $1.95 (-105)

With a Rams lead likely, it makes sense for the Bengals to be involved in more drives to catch up and that means more 3rd conversions. Both Zac Taylor and Sean McVay are aggressive on third downs, but this is even more so when their teams are behind. Look for Cincinnati to extend their drives, as they seek to stay in the game.


Cincinnati to make the 1st First Down conversion @ $1.95 (-105)

Staying in a similar vein, I expect a slow start to this game and both teams might punt away their first drive. That being said, the first team to move the chains will be the Bengals, whether it is on the ground or through the air. I still have the Rams last Super Bowl appearance in my mind and first downs were at a premium back then. While LA has a different offense this time around, the Bengals bring more pace with their weapons.


Jordan Poyer
DC Raheem Morris and Jalen Ramsey
Cincinnati to make the most offensive plays @ $2.05 (+105)

This ties a bow on the above two paragraphs. With the Bengals projected to be chasing the game, it makes sense that they will be out on the field making more plays on offense. Sacks exacerbate the progress of a drive, but the ability of Joe Burrow to continue drives in spite of these, gives me confidence that he will push Cincinnati ahead on this metric.


Longest Field Goal over 47.5 yards @ $1.95 (-105)

This game features two solid kickers, in Matt Gay and Evan McPherson. Gay is a Pro Bowler while Evan Mac has been a storyline during the postseason, making game winning kicks in every game for Cincinnati so far. Wind shouldn't be too much of a factor at the Inglewood stadium and getting a 3-pointer beyond 50 yards is very much on the table for both kickers, especially McPherson.

Shortest Field Goal over 27.5 yards @ $1.91 (-110)

This line implies that either team will attempt a field goal at 4th and 12 (or thereabouts) in a scoring opportunity. Unless it is as the beginning of the game, I can't see either team electing not to go for it, if they are at 4th and less than 12. Both quarterbacks are capable of making plays and a sneaky rush also works. This is amplified when a team is chasing the game. As such, I can't see any chip shot field goals of 27 yards or less in this contest.


Team to punt first - LA Rams @ $2.00 (+100)

As mentioned above, I can see the Rams getting off to a slow start in the big game. It won't be remembered later on, but a three and out from Stafford and friends seems likely to me (unless there is a penalty). Johnny Hekker is a stud punter, so the Rams will be in safe hands, if they can't get out to a hot start at home.

Cincinnati Bengals to score in every quarter @ $3.27 (+227)

You may have detected a theme here, but while I don't expect the Bengals to lead when it matters, their tiger-like tenacity will mean consistent points. Heck, they may even score first in the Super Bowl. Anyway, scoring in each quarter is something that they achieved against the Chiefs, who were seen as a superior team, so there is no reason why they can't repeat this performance again against the Rams.


Will there be a successful 2 point conversion @ $3.50 (+250)

As I said above, this game features two of the more aggressive coaches in the NFL. Actually, Taylor and McVay will be the youngest pair of head coaches in the history of the Super Bowl (Arians and Reid were the oldest coaching pair in SB LV). Anyway, as the game tightens up, look for one of these coaches to go for two after scoring a touchdown, especially if there is a penalty - meaning the line advances half the distance to the goal line for the scoring team. We saw the Bengals take advantage of this when the Chiefs infringed after a Cincinnati score in the AFC Conference Championship Game.



Over 2.5 players to attempt a pass @ $2.50 (+150)

I saw this late and this was too good to pass on (pun intended). Remember, this is just a pass attempt - to me, this is almost a layup. The starting quarterbacks will account for two players, obviously. If the game is a blowout, the winning team will bring in their backup signal caller to make some plays. Further, if Stafford or Burrow gets hurt and has to exit for a snap or two, their replacement will help us to cash. However, the most likely way to get the over here is for a trick play. During this season, Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr, Tyler Boyd and Johnny Hekker have all attempted and completed passes. Hekker is a former quarterback and loves to make a fake punt shine. Never forget that the Philly Special was a play made by tight end, Trey Burton (another former QB), in Super Bowl LII.

 

So there we have it, the first part of some of my favourite picks for Super Bowl Sunday. If you want to parlay, make sure you capture each leg as a single separate bet. Otherwise, place your bets, enjoy the matches and be good to each other. If you have any questions, feel free to hit us up on social media.


Nii Wallace-Bruce
Pro Sports Podcasters
NFL Analyst

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